US’s $2.36 Trillion Tourism Industry Braces for a Potential 'Trump Effect' Amid Trade Tensions
Despite uncertainty surrounding how economic and political instability may impact international travel to the US, concerns are mounting.
Business in Times Square’s costume-photo scene mirrored the broader tone: lukewarm, with little clarity on what lies ahead. Batman and King Kong might still draw tourists, but like the broader US tourism sector, their future feels uncertain.
The precise effect of political and economic unrest—ranging from volatile tariffs and fluctuating exchange rates to broader geopolitical friction—on international tourism is difficult to quantify for now. However, early signals point to growing unease within America’s massive $2.36 trillion tourism market, the largest of its kind globally.
Fears are emerging that President Donald Trump’s overhaul of global trade and diplomatic relations could dampen international interest in visiting the US.
Preliminary figures from the National Travel and Tourism Office last week revealed an 11.6% drop in overseas arrivals this March compared to the same month last year. Visits from China alone fell nearly 1%. Wolfgang Georg Arlt of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute dubbed this the “Trump Slump.”
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian also cited declining bookings and unpredictable trade policies for the airline’s decision not to expand its flight schedule in the latter half of the year. After lowering its earnings outlook for Q1, Bastian noted a dip in consumer and corporate confidence since mid-February.
In Las Vegas, officials are anticipating a 5% decline in hotel tax revenue, possibly tied to trade tensions with key neighbors Canada and Mexico, who collectively bring 2.6 million tourists to the city. Steve Hill, president of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, cautioned that while short-term drops don’t always indicate a trend, the tone around tariffs could be deterring potential visitors.
Tourism Economics, which had forecast a 9% rise in international arrivals and a 16% boost in spending this year, recently revised those projections downward—now anticipating a 9.4% drop. Analyst Geena Bevenour described the change as a significant reversal, driven by increasingly contentious global conditions and escalating tariff announcements.
On the flip side, a weakening US dollar relative to currencies like the euro, yen, and pound could make the country more affordable for foreign visitors. Indeed, New York was bustling this week with tourists, including families on Easter break.
A Scottish couple, James and Zoe, waiting for the Staten Island Ferry, said they weren’t troubled by trade talk or political rhetoric, and already had another trip to Florida planned. Meanwhile, a Belgian couple, Dave and Gwen Desmet, noted some initial apprehension but reported no issues at immigration.
